Interplay of management and environmental drivers shifts size structure of reef fish communities.

Countries are expanding marine protected area (MPA) networks to mitigate fisheries declines and support marine biodiversity. However, MPA impact evaluations typically assess total fish biomass. Here, we examine how fish biomass disaggregated by adult and juvenile life stages responds to environmental drivers, including sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and human footprint, and multiple management types at 139 reef sites in the Mesoamerican Reef (MAR) region. We found that total fish biomass generally appears stable across the region from 2006 to 2018, with limited rebuilding of fish stocks in MPAs. However, the metric of total fish biomass masked changes in fish community structure, with lower adult than juvenile fish biomass at northern sites, and adult:juvenile ratios closer to 1:1 at southern sites. These shifts were associated with different responses of juvenile and adult fish to environmental drivers and management. Juvenile fish biomass increased at sites with high larval connectivity and coral cover, whereas adult fish biomass decreased at sites with greater human footprint and SST anomalies. Adult fish biomass decreased primarily in Honduran general use zones, which suggests insufficient protection for adult fish in the southern MAR. There was a north-south gradient in management and environmental drivers, with lower coverage of fully protected areas and higher SST anomalies and coastal development in the south that together may undermine the maintenance of adult fish biomass in the southern MAR. Accounting for the interplay between environmental drivers and management in the design of MPAs is critical for increasing fish biomass across life history stages.

Los países están ampliando las redes de áreas marinas protegidas (AMP) para mitigar la disminución de las pesquerías y apoyar la biodiversidad marina. Sin embargo, las evaluaciones de impacto de las AMP típicamente estudian la biomasa total de peces. Aquí, examinamos cómo la biomasa de peces desagregada por etapas de vida adultas y juveniles responde a factores ambientales como anomalías de la temperatura superficial del mar (SST) e impacto humano, y múltiples tipos de manejo en 139 sitios de arrecifes en el sistema arrecifal mesoamericano (SAM). Encontramos que la biomasa total de peces en general parece estable en toda la región entre 2006 y 2018, con una recuperación limitada de las poblaciones de peces en las AMP. Sin embargo, la métrica de biomasa total de peces enmascaró los cambios en la estructura de la comunidad de peces, con una biomasa de peces adultos más baja que juveniles en los sitios del norte, y proporciones adulto:juvenil más cercana a 1:1 en los sitios del sur. Estos cambios fueron asociados con diferentes respuestas de peces juveniles y adultos a variables ambientales y de manejo. La biomasa de peces juveniles aumentó en sitios con alta conectividad larvaria y cobertura coralina, mientras que la biomasa de peces adultos disminuyó en sitios con mayor impacto humano y anomalías en la SST. La biomasa de peces adultos disminuyó principalmente en las zonas de uso general (GUZ) hondureñas, lo cual sugiere una protección insuficiente para peces adultos en el sur del SAM. Hubo un gradiente norte­sur en el manejo y los factores ambientales, con menor cobertura de áreas totalmente protegidas y mayores anomalías de SST y desarrollo costero en el sur. En conjunto esto puede degradar el mantenimiento de la biomasa de peces adultos en el sur del SAM. La interacción entre factores ambientales y el manejo en el diseño de las AMP es fundamental para aumentar la biomasa de peces en todas las etapas del ciclo de vida.

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts.

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

What evidence exists on the links between natural climate solutions and climate change mitigation outcomes in subtropical and tropical terrestrial regions? A systematic map protocol.

Background: Natural climate solutions (NCS)-actions to conserve, restore, and modify natural and modified ecosystems to increase carbon storage or avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-are increasingly regarded as important pathways for climate change mitigation, while contributing to our global conservation efforts, overall planetary resilience, and sustainable development goals. Recently, projections posit that terrestrial-based NCS can potentially capture or avoid the emission of at least 11 Gt (gigatons) of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, or roughly encompassing one third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the Paris Climate Agreement goals by 2030. NCS interventions also purport to provide co-benefits such as improved productivity and livelihoods from sustainable natural resource management, protection of locally and culturally important natural areas, and downstream climate adaptation benefits. Attention on implementing NCS to address climate change across global and national agendas has grown-however, clear understanding of which types of NCS interventions have undergone substantial study versus those that require additional evidence is still lacking. This study aims to conduct a systematic map to collate and describe the current state, distribution, and methods used for evidence on the links between NCS interventions and climate change mitigation outcomes within tropical and sub-tropical terrestrial ecosystems. Results of this study can be used to inform program and policy design and highlight critical knowledge gaps where future evaluation, research, and syntheses are needed. Methods: To develop this systematic map, we will search two bibliographic databases (including 11 indices) and 67 organization websites, backward citation chase from 39 existing evidence syntheses, and solicit information from key informants. All searches will be conducted in English and encompass subtropical and tropical terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands, mangroves, agricultural areas). Search results will be screened at title and abstract, and full text levels, recording both the number of excluded articles and reasons for exclusion. Key meta-data from included articles will be coded and reported in a narrative review that will summarize trends in the evidence base, assess gaps in knowledge, and provide insights for policy, practice, and research. The data from this systematic map will be made open access. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13750-022-00268-w.

Designing optimal human-modified landscapes for forest biodiversity conservation.

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human-modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management of these landscapes. Yet, these concepts are often contradictory and apply at different spatial scales, making the design of biodiversity-friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine concepts with empirical support to design optimal landscape scenarios for forest-dwelling species. The supported concepts indicate that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥ 40% forest cover, although higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics. Forest cover should be configured with c. 10% in a very large forest patch, and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. The proposed landscape scenarios represent an optimal compromise between delivery of goods and services to humans and preserving most forest wildlife, and can therefore guide forest preservation and restoration strategies.

Physiological consequences of rising water salinity for a declining freshwater turtle.

Sea-level rise, drought and water diversion can all lead to rapid salinization of freshwater habitats, especially in coastal areas. Increased water salinities can in turn alter the geographic distribution and ecology of freshwater species including turtles. The physiological consequences of salinization for freshwater turtles, however, are poorly known. Here, we compared the osmoregulatory response of two geographically separate populations of the freshwater Western Pond Turtle (Actinemys marmorata)-a species declining across its range in western North America-to three constant salinities: 0.4 ppt, 10 ppt and 15 ppt over 2 weeks. We found that turtles from a coastal estuarine marsh population regulated their plasma osmolality at lower levels than their conspecifics from an inland freshwater creek population 45 km away. Plasma osmolalities were consistently lower in estuarine marsh turtles than the freshwater creek turtles over the entire 2-week exposure to 10 ppt and 15 ppt water. Furthermore, estuarine marsh turtles maintained plasma osmolalities within 1 SD of their mean field osmolalities over the 2-week exposure, whereas freshwater creek turtles exceeded their field values within the first few days after exposure to elevated salinities. However, individuals from both populations exhibited body mass loss in 15 ppt water, with significantly greater loss in estuarine turtles. We speculate that the greater ability to osmoregulate by the estuarine marsh turtles may be explained by their reduced feeding and drinking in elevated salinities that was not exhibited by the freshwater creek population. However, due to mass loss in both populations, physiological and behavioural responses exhibited by estuarine marsh turtles may only be effective adaptations for short-term exposures to elevated salinities, such as those from tides and when traversing saline habitats, and are unlikely to be effective for long-term exposure to elevated salinity as is expected under sea-level rise.

Salinity tolerances and use of saline environments by freshwater turtles: implications of sea level rise.

The projected rise in global mean sea levels places many freshwater turtle species at risk of saltwater intrusion into freshwater habitats. Freshwater turtles are disproportionately more threatened than other taxa; thus, understanding the role of salinity in determining their contemporary distribution and evolution should be a research priority. Freshwater turtles are a slowly evolving lineage; however, they can adapt physiologically or behaviourally to various levels of salinity and, therefore, temporarily occur in marine or brackish environments. Here, we provide the first comprehensive global review on freshwater turtle use and tolerance of brackish water ecosystems. We link together current knowledge of geographic occurrence, salinity tolerance, phylogenetic relationships, and physiological and behavioural mechanisms to generate a baseline understanding of the response of freshwater turtles to changing saline environments. We also review the potential origins of salinity tolerance in freshwater turtles. Finally, we integrate 2100 sea level rise (SLR) projections, species distribution maps, literature gathered on brackish water use, and a phylogeny to predict the exposure of freshwater turtles to projected SLR globally. From our synthesis of published literature and available data, we build a framework for spatial and phylogenetic conservation prioritization of coastal freshwater turtles. Based on our literature review, 70 species (∼30% of coastal freshwater turtle species) from 10 of the 11 freshwater turtle families have been reported in brackish water ecosystems. Most anecdotal records, observations, and descriptions do not imply long-term salinity tolerance among freshwater turtles. Rather, experiments show that some species exhibit potential for adaptation and plasticity in physiological, behavioural, and life-history traits that enable them to endure varying periods (e.g. days or months) and levels of saltwater exposure. Species that specialize on brackish water habitats are likely to be vulnerable to SLR because of their exclusive coastal distributions and adaptations to a narrow range of salinities. Most species, however, have not been documented in brackish water habitats but may also be highly vulnerable to projected SLR. Our analysis suggests that approximately 90% of coastal freshwater turtle species assessed in our study will be affected by a 1-m increase in global mean SLR by 2100. Most at risk are freshwater turtles found in New Guinea, Southeast Asia, Australia, and North and South America that may lose more than 10% of their present geographic range. In addition, turtle species in the families Chelidae, Emydidae, and Trionychidae may experience the greatest exposure to projected SLR in their present geographic ranges. Better understanding of survival, growth, reproductive and population-level responses to SLR will improve region-specific population viability predictions of freshwater turtles that are increasingly exposed to SLR. Integrating phylogenetic, physiological, and spatial frameworks to assess the effects of projected SLR may improve identification of vulnerable species, guilds, and geographic regions in need of conservation prioritization. We conclude that the use of brackish and marine environments by freshwater turtles provides clues about the evolutionary processes that have prolonged their existence, shaped their unique coastal distributions, and may prove useful in predicting their response to a changing world.

Phylogenetic homogenization of amphibian assemblages in human-altered habitats across the globe.

Habitat conversion is driving biodiversity loss and restructuring species assemblages across the globe. Responses to habitat conversion vary widely, however, and little is known about the degree to which shared evolutionary history underlies changes in species richness and composition. We analyzed data from 48 studies, comprising 438 species on five continents, to understand how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of amphibian assemblages shifts in response to habitat conversion. We found that evolutionary history explains the majority of variation in species' responses to habitat conversion, with specific clades scattered across the amphibian tree of life being favored by human land uses. Habitat conversion led to an average loss of 139 million years of amphibian evolutionary history within assemblages, high species and lineage turnover at landscape scales, and phylogenetic homogenization at the global scale (despite minimal taxonomic homogenization). Lineage turnover across habitats was greatest in lowland tropical regions where large species pools and stable climates have perhaps given rise to many microclimatically specialized species. Together, our results indicate that strong phylogenetic clustering of species' responses to habitat conversion mediates nonrandom structuring of local assemblages and loss of global phylogenetic diversity. In an age of rapid global change, identifying clades that are most sensitive to habitat conversion will help prioritize use of limited conservation resources.

Thermal biology mediates responses of amphibians and reptiles to habitat modification.

Human activities often replace native forests with warmer, modified habitats that represent novel thermal environments for biodiversity. Reducing biodiversity loss hinges upon identifying which species are most sensitive to the environmental conditions that result from habitat modification. Drawing on case studies and a meta-analysis, we examined whether observed and modelled thermal traits, including heat tolerances, variation in body temperatures, and evaporative water loss, explained variation in sensitivity of ectotherms to habitat modification. Low heat tolerances of lizards and amphibians and high evaporative water loss of amphibians were associated with increased sensitivity to habitat modification, often explaining more variation than non-thermal traits. Heat tolerances alone explained 24-66% (mean = 38%) of the variation in species responses, and these trends were largely consistent across geographic locations and spatial scales. As habitat modification alters local microclimates, the thermal biology of species will likely play a key role in the reassembly of terrestrial communities.

Mass mortality of eastern box turtles with upper respiratory disease following atypical cold weather.

Emerging infectious diseases cause population declines in many ectotherms, with outbreaks frequently punctuated by periods of mass mortality. It remains unclear, however, whether thermoregulation by ectotherms and variation in environmental temperature is associated with mortality risk and disease progression, especially in wild populations. Here, we examined environmental and body temperatures of free-ranging eastern box turtles Terrapene carolina during a mass die-off coincident with upper respiratory disease. We recorded deaths of 17 turtles that showed clinical signs of upper respiratory disease among 76 adult turtles encountered in Berea, Kentucky (USA), in 2014. Of the 17 mortalities, 11 occurred approximately 14 d after mean environmental temperature dropped 2.5 SD below the 3 mo mean. Partial genomic sequencing of the major capsid protein from 1 sick turtle identified a ranavirus isolate similar to frog virus 3. Turtles that lacked clinical signs of disease had significantly higher body temperatures (23°C) than sick turtles (21°C) during the mass mortality, but sick turtles that survived and recovered eventually warmed (measured by temperature loggers). Finally, there was a significant negative effect of daily environmental temperature deviation from the 3 mo mean on survival, suggesting that rapid decreases in environmental temperature were correlated with mortality. Our results point to a potential role for environmental temperature variation and body temperature in disease progression and mortality risk of eastern box turtles affected by upper respiratory disease. Given our findings, it is possible that colder or more variable environmental temperatures and an inability to effectively thermoregulate are associated with poorer disease outcomes in eastern box turtles.

Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land-use and climate change.

Land-cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land-cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CTmax ). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land-cover types and CTmax of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat-specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CTmax exceeded their habitat-specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land-cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land-cover and climate-change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business-as-usual land-cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7- to 4.5-fold greater losses in TSH area than land-cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest-restricted species had lower mean CTmax than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land-cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species.

Infection risk decreases with increasing mismatch in host and pathogen environmental tolerances.

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused the greatest known wildlife pandemic, infecting over 500 amphibian species. It remains unclear why some host species decline from disease-related mortality whereas others persist. We introduce a conceptual model that predicts that infection risk in ectotherms will decrease as the difference between host and pathogen environmental tolerances (i.e. tolerance mismatch) increases. We test this prediction using both local-scale data from Costa Rica and global analyses of over 11 000 Bd infection assays. We find that infection prevalence decreases with increasing thermal tolerance mismatch and with increasing host tolerance of habitat modification. The relationship between environmental tolerance mismatches and Bd infection prevalence is generalisable across multiple amphibian families and spatial scales, and the magnitude of the tolerance mismatch effect depends on environmental context. These findings may help explain patterns of amphibian declines driven by a global wildlife pandemic.

The importance of defining focal assemblages when evaluating amphibian and reptile responses to land use.

Habitat loss and degradation are primary threats to amphibians and reptiles, but the relative effects of common land uses on assemblages and the mechanisms that underlie faunal responses are poorly studied. We reviewed the effects of four prevalent types of habitat alteration (urbanization, agriculture, livestock grazing, and silviculture) on amphibian and reptile species richness and abundance by summarizing reported responses in the literature and by estimating effect sizes across studies for species richness in each land-use type. We then used a multinomial model to classify species as natural habitat specialists, generalists, and disturbed habitat specialists and examined variation in effect sizes for each land-use type according to habitat specialization categories. There were mixed conclusions from individual studies, some reporting negative, neutral, or positive effects of land use on species richness and total abundance. A large proportion of studies reported species-specific effects of individual species abundance. However, in our analysis of effect sizes, we found a general trend of negative effects of land use on species richness. We also demonstrate that habitat associations of common species and species turnover can explain variation in the effect of land use on herpetofauna. Our review highlights the pervasive negative effects of common land uses on amphibians and reptiles, the importance of identifying groups vulnerable to land-use change (e.g., forest-associated species) in conservation studies, and the potential influence of disturbance-associated species on whole assemblage analyses.

Evaluating connectivity for tropical amphibians using empirically derived resistance surfaces.

Agricultural expansion continues to drive forest loss in species-rich tropical systems and often disrupts movement and distributions of organisms. The ability of species to occupy and move through altered habitats likely depends on the level of contrast between natural forest and surrounding land uses. Connectivity models, such as circuit theory models, are widely used in conservation biology, and their primary input consists of resistance surfaces representing movement costs associated with landscape features. Cost values are most frequently determined by expert opinion, which may not capture relevant levels of contrast among features. We developed resistance surfaces using experiments that represent different local mechanisms hypothesized to affect connectivity for two Neotropical amphibian species. Response ratios were calculated to translate experimental results to cost values used in connectivity modeling. We used relative abundance data in three land-cover types to generate resistance surfaces for evaluating independent support of models derived from experiments. Finally, we analyzed agreement among movement pathways predicted for each species and among three commonly used connectivity measures: Euclidean, least cost, and resistance distances. Experiments showed that extreme microclimates associated with altered habitats significantly increased desiccation and mortality risk for both species. Resistances estimated from microclimate experiments were concordant with those from survey data for both species. For one focal species, resistance estimates derived from predator encounter rates were also highly correlated with abundance-derived resistances. There was generally low agreement among the three alternative distance measures, which underscores the importance of choosing connectivity models that are most appropriate for the study objectives. Overall, similarity among linkages modeled for each species was high, but decreased with declining forest cover. Our results highlight the value of experiments for drawing inferences about processes in resistance modeling, as well as the need to consider model differences and species-specific responses when developing strategies to maintain connectivity.

Mechanistic insights into landscape genetic structure of two tropical amphibians using field-derived resistance surfaces.

Conversion of forests to agriculture often fragments distributions of forest species and can disrupt gene flow. We examined effects of prevalent land uses on genetic connectivity of two amphibian species in northeastern Costa Rica. We incorporated data from field surveys and experiments to develop resistance surfaces that represent local mechanisms hypothesized to modify dispersal success of amphibians, such as habitat-specific predation and desiccation risk. Because time lags can exist between forest conversion and genetic responses, we evaluated landscape effects using land-cover data from different time periods. Populations of both species were structured at similar spatial scales but exhibited differing responses to landscape features. Litter frog population differentiation was significantly related to landscape resistances estimated from abundance and experiment data. Model support was highest for experiment-derived surfaces that represented responses to microclimate variation. Litter frog genetic variation was best explained by contemporary landscape configuration, indicating rapid population response to land-use change. Poison frog genetic structure was strongly associated with geographic isolation, which explained up to 45% of genetic variation, and long-standing barriers, such as rivers and mountains. However, there was also partial support for abundance- and microclimate response-derived resistances. Differences in species responses to landscape features may be explained by overriding effects of population size on patterns of differentiation for poison frogs, but not litter frogs. In addition, pastures are likely semi-permeable to poison frog gene flow because the species is known to use pastures when remnant vegetation is present, but litter frogs do not. Ongoing reforestation efforts will probably increase connectivity in the region by increasing tree cover and reducing area of pastures.